Bright Simons, the Vice President of IMANI Africa, predicted last year that a considerable segment of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) base would abstain from voting in the 2024 general elections. He elucidated that a political party’s base comprises multiple layers that collectively form a “winning coalition.” He noted that the outer layer can easily dissociate when the party’s appeal diminishes. While some voters from these dissociated layers may realign with different political entities, many are unlikely to return.
The certified presidential results released by the Electoral Commission (EC) reveal significant voter apathy within the NPP, with over two million voters (2,073,283) who supported the party in the 2020 elections opting not to participate in the 2024 polls. In 2020, President Nana Akufo-Addo garnered 6.7 million votes (6,730,587), representing 51.30% of the total votes. In stark contrast, the NPP’s 2024 presidential candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, secured just over 4.6 million votes (4,657,304), reflecting a substantial decline to 41.61%.
In a recent post on his X page, Bright Simons underscored the dangers of presuming that dissatisfied voters will inevitably return once their grievances subside. He referenced historical precedents, such as the decline of the Convention People’s Party (CPP) in Asante, where the party once commanded substantial support before independence.
He stated, “For those familiar with the political landscape in Ghana, numerous explanations have been provided regarding the NPP’s electoral defeat. Nevertheless, one critical aspect has been misinterpreted. Fellow analysts and I indicated more than a year ago, utilizing by-election data, that a notable portion of the NPP’s base would likely refrain from voting in the general elections.”
It is imperative to recognise that a political party’s base consists of various strata that constitute a winning coalition. The outer layer is particularly susceptible to dissociation when the party’s appeal wanes. Although certain voters may switch allegiances, a significant number do not return.
There exists a substantial risk in assuming that disenchanted voters will return merely due to a temporary lapse in their dissatisfaction. This assumption has historically contributed to the CPP’s losses in regions such as Asante, where it previously enjoyed robust support. Many individuals also neglect to recall that, as recently as two decades ago, the People’s National Convention (PNC) was successful in securing seats in Bolgatanga, Sissala, and Zebila, but has since experienced a lasting disconnection from its supporters. In essence, voters have departed, and most have not returned.
Consequently, the assertion that the transition from a roughly 1 million vote lead in 2020 to a 1.7 million vote deficit in 2024 can primarily be attributed to disgruntled party members is flawed. The scale of the voter departure—encompassing millions—is too extensive for such a theory to be plausible. A more accurate explanation may hinge upon a disconnection due to a misalignment of values.
Identifying the appropriate factors is essential for any endeavours aimed at re-engaging these voters. Bright Simons, the Vice President of IMANI Africa, articulated his prediction last year that a considerable segment of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) base would abstain from voting in the 2024 general elections. He elucidated that the base of a political party comprises multiple layers that collectively form a “winning coalition.” He noted that the outer layer can easily dissociate when the party’s appeal diminishes. While some voters from these dissociated layers may realign with different political entities, many are unlikely to return.
The certified presidential results released by the Electoral Commission (EC) reveal significant voter apathy within the NPP, with over two million voters (2,073,283) who supported the party in the 2020 elections opting not to participate in the 2024 polls. In 2020, President Nana Akufo-Addo garnered 6.7 million votes (6,730,587), representing 51.30% of the total votes cast. In stark contrast, the NPP’s 2024 presidential candidate, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, secured just over 4.6 million votes (4,657,304), reflecting a substantial decline to 41.61%.
In a recent post on his X page, Bright Simons underscored the dangers of presuming that dissatisfied voters will inevitably return once their grievances subside. He referenced historical precedents, such as the decline of the Convention People’s Party (CPP) in Asante, where the party once commanded substantial support before independence.
He stated, “For those familiar with the political landscape in Ghana, numerous explanations have been provided regarding the NPP’s electoral defeat. Nevertheless, one critical aspect has been misinterpreted. Fellow analysts and I indicated more than a year ago, utilizing by-election data, that a notable portion of the NPP’s base would likely refrain from voting in the general elections.”
It is imperative to recognise that a political party’s base consists of various strata that constitute a winning coalition. The outer layer is particularly susceptible to dissociation when the party’s appeal wanes. Although certain voters may switch allegiances, a significant number do not return.
There exists a substantial risk in assuming that disenchanted voters will return merely due to a temporary lapse in their dissatisfaction. This assumption has historically contributed to the CPP’s losses in regions such as Asante, where it previously enjoyed robust support. Many individuals also neglect to recall that, as recently as two decades ago, the People’s National Convention (PNC) was successful in securing seats in Bolgatanga, Sissala, and Zebila, but has since experienced a lasting disconnection from its supporters. In essence, voters have departed, and most have not returned.
Consequently, the assertion that the transition from a roughly 1 million vote lead in 2020 to a 1.7 million vote deficit in 2024 can primarily be attributed to disgruntled party members is flawed. The scale of the voter departure—encompassing millions—is too extensive for such a theory to be plausible. A more accurate explanation may hinge upon a disconnection due to a misalignment of values.
Identifying the appropriate factors is essential for any endeavours aimed at re-engaging these voters.
